Year-ender 2024: A year of political shifts and incumbent struggles across the globe

Nearly half of the world’s population, including in India, voted in elections in 2024 making it a consequential year for democracy. The elections in leading democracies of the world took place against a backdrop of conflict in the middle east and war in Ukraine.

Leadership changes were witnessed in countries like Germany, France and United States of America. Sheikh Hasina faced exile in Bangladesh and Bashar al-Assad had to leave Syria ending his and his father’s five-decade long hold on power.

Overall, 2024 was a tough year for incumbents. “While every election is shaped by local factors, economic challenges were a consistent theme across the globe. That included the US, where the economy was the top issue for registered voters – especially for those who supported Trump,” said a report by Pew Research Centre.

While India saw pivotal parliamentary elections determining Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s third term, with a weakened majority for Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

In another high-profile election, Democrats in the United States lost the presidency. Republican former President Donald Trump defeated Vice President and Democrat Kamala Harris in the November 5 elections.

Power shifted to the left in the United Kingdom. The Labour Party won an overwhelming parliamentary majority, bringing 14 years of Conservative Party rule to an end.

Regime Changes: Here is a look at the major elections that took place in the world in 2024 and saw change in regimes:

United Kingdom

Political power swung to the left in United Kingdom. The Labour Party won an overwhelming parliamentary majority, bringing 14 years of Conservative Party rule to an end.

The elections were held on July 4. The Labour party secured over 400 of the 650 parliamentary seats, their largest majority in decades.

Keir Starmer became the Prime Minister of UK in July 2024.

United States

Republican Donald Trump defeated Vice President and Democrat Kamala Harris in US elections held in November. Republicans also won majorities in both houses of Congress. It was the third straight US presidential election in which the incumbent party lost.

The Republican Party’s – Donald Trump, who was the 45th president of the US from 2017 to 2021, had picked JD Vance, the junior US senator from Ohio as his running mate. Trump and Vance are scheduled to be inaugurated as the 47th President and the 50th Vice President on January 20, 2025.

Sri Lanka

The Presidential elections were held in Sri Lanka on September 21. Anura Kumara Dissanayake of the National People’s Power (NPP) alliance defeated his rivals to secure the presidency.

Dissanayake is a Marxist member of Parliament from Colombo representing Marxist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP). The fifty-year-old defeated prominent names including incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe, who finished third with just 17 per cent of the votes and Namal Rajapaksa, son of former President Mahinda Rajapaksa, who managed less that 3 per cent of votes in the Saturday’s election.

Dissanayake’s victory is significant development in the politics of Sri Lanka – the nation grappling in the aftermath of the mass protests that ousted Gotabaya Rajapaksa in 2022. Sri Lankan people clearly voted out the incumbent reflecting the anger in the country.

Two months after the Presidential elections, parliamentary elections were conducted in Sri Lanka on November 14. The NPP secured a historic landslide, winning 159 out of 225 seats.

Then there were countries where incumbent parties held on to power but suffered significant losses. 

Here are some prominent examples:

India: Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party won a third consecutive victory but were forced to form a government in a coalition government. The BJP’s numbers fell from 353 to 293 seats in Lok Sabha.

The elections for 543-member Lok Sabha were held through April-June 2024

France: France held first round of snap polls on June 30 and second round on July 7 to elect all 577 members of the National Assembly. President Emmanuel Macron dissolved the Assembly after significant losses for his coalition in the European Parliament elections. The legislative race was dominated by three major blocs: Macron’s pro-government Ensemble, the leftist New Popular Front (NFP), and the far-right National Rally (RN).

The elections resulted in a hung parliament, with the National Rally securing the most seats but failing to achieve a majority. Prime Minister Michel Barnier led government collapsed early in December in a confidence vote over his cost-cutting budget. Macron named Francois Bayrou as prime minister of France in December.

South Africa: The African National Congress failed to win a majority of National Assembly seats for the first time since the end of apartheid.

Japan: Liberal Democratic Party – which governed the country for most of the post-World War II era – and its coalition partner, Komeito, lost its majority in the parliament.

Other Elections

Bangladesh

Parliamentary elections were held in Bangladesh on January 7. The elections for the 350-member Jatiya Sangsad faced criticism over fairness.

The ruling Awami League (AL), led by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, secured a fourth consecutive term, winning 224 of the 300 contested seats. However, the elections results were boycotted by major opposition parties, including the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). The charge against the government of suppressing opposition voices and creating an uneven playing field.

In the aftermath of the election, Bangladesh saw widespread protests amid criticism from global leaders. A students’ movement against job reservations snowballed into a mass uprising in July and August 2024 forcing Sheikh Hasina to resign. An interim government headed by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus as the Chief Adviser was established.

Pakistan

Elections were held to the National Assembly on February 8. Polling was held after the arrest of former Prime Minister Imran Khan and banning of his party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI). Since PTI was banned , many of its candidates ran as independents, securing over 100 seats and becoming the largest single group in the assembly.

However, the PTI independents lacked the mandatory coalition to form a government. The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), led by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, emerged as the largest formal party with 75 seats, followed by the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) with 54 seats. A coalition government was subsequently formed by the PML-N and PPP, along with smaller parties, under Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.