Mint Primer | Iran strikes Israel: What next?

Why did Iran attack Israel?

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has said that the attack was in retaliation for the killings of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah and IRGC commander Abbas Nilforoshan in Beirut on 27 September. It also noted the death of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July. 

This strike signifies a belligerent Tehran’s readiness to retaliate against perceived threats to its sovereignty, sending a clear message both domestically and internationally. While Israel and its key ally, the US, have worked to curb Iran’s regional proxies—including the Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and Hamas in Gaza—Iran’s latest airstrike shows it is prepared to respond directly.

What comes next?

These strikes have moved the region closer to the brink of a catastrophic conflict. The coming months will be critical as Israel, Iran, and various regional actors adjust their strategies. Israel, backed by the US, has vowed to avenge the attack. 

The conflict is unfolding against the backdrop of two competing visions for the region: one led by Israel and the US, which views Iran and its proxies as obstacles to its vision and hegemony in West Asia, and the other led by Iran and its axis of resistance, which sees Western influence as a threat to its regional power ambitions.

How does this threaten global trade, particularly for India?

Escalating conflict risks disrupting vital global shipping routes, especially as Israel tightens its stance against Hezbollah. Hezbollah maintains strong ties with the Houthi rebels in Yemen, who have been responsible for multiple attacks on ships passing through the Red Sea. 

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This could severely disrupt global supply chains, impacting countries like India that rely heavily on the Suez Canal for trade with Europe, the US, Africa, and West Asia.

How will the US respond?

The US has pledged to stand firmly by Israel and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. However, the larger question remains: can the US afford the moral responsibility of escalating tensions that could push the world closer to war, or is it already complicit? This also raises the question of whether a full-scale regional war is on the horizon, one that might only end with a shift in US policy. Despite Washington’s diplomatic posturing, does this situation reflect a decline in American influence and its ability to rein in its increasingly assertive ally, Israel, and Netanyahu?

What is India’s position?

India has expressed concern and reiterated its offer to facilitate dialogue between Israel and Iran. However, its evolving strategic, defence, and technological partnership with Israel, along with its shift from previous positions on Palestine, raises questions about how India will balance these relationships on the ground.

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India’s official stance remains that terrorism has no place, and it supports Israel while also advocating for respect for humanitarian law. As the situation develops, India may need to take more proactive steps in line with its long-standing commitment to peace and diplomacy.