The World’s $100 Trillion Fiscal Timebomb Keeps Ticking

(Bloomberg) — Even before global finance chiefs fly into Washington over the next few days, they’ve been urged in advance by the International Monetary Fund to tighten their belts.

Two weeks ahead of a potentially era-defining US election, and with the world’s recent inflation crisis barely behind it, ministers and central bankers gathering in the nation’s capital face intensifying calls to get their fiscal houses in order while they still can.

The fund, whose annual meetings begin there on Monday, has already pointed to some of the themes it hopes to press home with a barrage of projections and studies on the global economy in coming days. 

The IMF’s Fiscal Monitor on Wednesday will feature a warning that public debt levels are set to reach $100 trillion this year, driven by China and the US. Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, in a speech on Thursday, stressed how that mountain of borrowing is weighing on the world. 

“Our forecasts point to an unforgiving combination of low growth and high debt — a difficult future,” she said. “Governments must work to reduce debt and rebuild buffers for the next shock — which will surely come, and maybe sooner than we expect.”

Some finance ministers may get further reminders even before the week is over. 

UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves has already faced an IMF warning of the risk of a market backlash if debt doesn’t stabilize. Tuesday marks the last release of public finance data before her Oct. 30 budget.

What Bloomberg Economics Says:

“For all the talk of black holes, the overall effect of Reeves budget will be a policy that’s looser, not tighter, relative to the previous government’s plans.”

—Ana Andrade and Dan Hanson, economists. For full analysis, click here

Meanwhile, Moody’s Ratings has slated Friday for a possible report on France, which faces intense investor scrutiny at present. With its assessment one step higher than major competitors, markets will watch for any cut in the outlook. 

As for the biggest borrowers of all, the glimpse of the IMF’s report already published contains a grim admonishment: your public finances are everyone’s problem.

“Elevated debt levels and uncertainty surrounding fiscal policy in systemically important countries, such as China and the United States, can generate significant spillovers in the form of higher borrowing costs and debt-related risks in other economies,” the fund said.

Elsewhere in the coming week, a rate cut in Canada and a hike in Russia are among the possible central bank moves anticipated by economists. 

Click here for what happened in the past week, and below is our wrap of what’s coming up in the global economy.

Economists see a pair of home sales reports showing that declining mortgage rates are merely helping to stabilize the US residential real estate market. On Wednesday, the National Association of Realtors will issue data on contract closings for previously owned homes, followed a day later by government figures on sales of new homes.

Economists project modest increases in September sales of both existing and new homes. Resales remain hamstrung by limited inventory that’s keeping asking prices elevated and hurting affordability. While purchases of previously owned properties remain near the weakest pace since 2010, builders have capitalized: New-home sales have gradually picked up over the past two years with the help of incentives.

Other US data in the coming week include September durable goods orders, plus capital goods shipments that will help economists fine-tune their estimates of third-quarter economic growth. The Federal Reserve also issues its Beige Book, an anecdotal readout of the economy.

Regional Fed officials speaking in the coming week include Jeffrey Schmid, Mary Daly and Lorie Logan.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada is increasingly expected to cut rates by 50 basis points after inflation cooled to 1.6% in September and some measures of the labor market remain weak. 

Europe, Middle East, Africa

As with other regions, attention will largely be focused on Washington; more than a dozen appearances of European Central Bank’s Governing Council members are scheduled stateside. 

That includes President Christine Lagarde, who’ll be interviewed by Bloomberg Television’s Francine Lacqua in Washington on Tuesday. 

Similarly, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will speak in New York on Tuesday, while Swiss National Bank President Martin Schlegel is scheduled to appear on Friday.

Among euro-area economic reports, consumer confidence on Wednesday, purchasing manager indexes the following day, and the ECB’s inflation expectations survey on Friday may be the highlights. Similarly, Germany’s Ifo Institute will release its closely watched business confidence gauge at the end of the week. 

Aside from the possible rating assessment on France, S&P may also release reports on Belgium and Finland on Friday. 

Turning east, two central bank decisions are likely to draw attention, starting on Tuesday with Hungary, which may keep borrowing costs unchanged.

The Bank of Russia has signaled that continued inflationary pressures could lead to another rate hike on Friday. They lifted it 100 basis points to 19% in September, and a similar move would return the rate to the 20% level imposed in an emergency increase after President Vladimir Putin began the February 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Finally, data on Wednesday from South Africa is expected to show inflation slowed to 3.8% in September, boosting the chances of another rate cut next month. The central bank said it now forecasts consumer-price growth to stay in the bottom half of its 3% to 6% target band over the next three quarters.

Lenders in China, with a nudge from the People’s Bank of China, are expected to join the campaign to revive business activity by trimming their loan prime rates on Monday. The 1-year and 5-year rates are seen sliding by 20 basis points to 3.15% and 3.65%, respectively. 

At the end of the week, data will show if the nation’s industrial profits bounced back in September after slumping more than 17% in August. The most recent numbers showed the economy expanding at the lowest pace in six quarters during that three-month period.

Elsewhere, the region gets a cluster of PMIs on Thursday, including from Japan, Australia and India. 

Singapore is forecast to report Wednesday that consumer inflation slowed in September, with price growth updates for that month also due from Hong Kong and Malaysia. 

On Friday, Japan will report Tokyo CPI for October, a key indicator that will capture corporate price changes at the start of the fiscal second half. 

South Korea will release third-quarter growth figures on Wednesday that may show the economy’s momentum has slowed marginally. 

During the week, South Korea releases early trade statistics for October, with Taiwan and New Zealand releasing trade numbers for September. 

Among the region’s central banks, many leading officials will attend the IMF meetings in Washington. Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser holds a fireside chat on Monday, and three days later the bank publishes its annual report. 

Reserve Bank of New Zealand chief Adrian Orr speaks on policy on the sidelines of the IMF confab, and Uzbekistan’s central bank will decide Thursday whether to pause for a second meeting following its July rate cut.

Brazil watchers will be keen to see the weekly forecasts in the central bank’s so-called Focus survey due on Monday.

Expectations for inflation, borrowing costs and debt metrics have lately taken a decidedly gloomy turn given doubts about the government’s fiscal discipline.

In Mexico, GDP proxy data should be consistent with the loss of momentum that has many economists marking down their third-quarter growth forecasts. The economy is expected to slow for a third year in 2024.

GDP proxy data for Argentina will probably show South America’s second-biggest economy sputtering and still in the grip of a recession that’s likely to extend into 2025.

Paraguay’s central bank holds its rate setting meeting; policymakers have kept borrowing costs at 6% for the past six months with inflation running slightly above the 4% target.

On the prices front, neither investors nor policymakers will be cheered by mid-month inflation reports from Brazil and Mexico given the early consensus for higher headline readings.

The data here will likely do nothing to dent the prospects of Brazil’s central bank tightening policy again on Nov. 6, while at the same time giving Banxico pause about a third straight cut at its Nov. 14 gathering.

–With assistance from Laura Dhillon Kane, Brian Fowler, Robert Jameson, Monique Vanek, Vince Golle, Brendan Scott and William Horobin.

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